Sales & Revenue Forecasting Tips for Nanny Agencies in 2026

November 2025

Forecasting is becoming increasingly important for nanny agencies as the industry prepares for unique economic and political dynamics in 2026.

Whether you offer long-term nanny placements, temporary care, corporate backup care, or specialized services like newborn care or household management, understanding how to project your revenue and the factors that can influence it will set your agency up for a strong year.

I want to share some practical forecasting strategies, how software tools can simplify the process, and what to watch for in 2026.

Why Forecasting Matters for Nanny Agencies

A reliable forecast helps you set realistic goals, plan staffing levels, manage cash flow, and maintain healthy profit margins. And in an industry where demand can fluctuate with school calendars, workforce trends, and economic conditions, forecasting isn’t optional; it’s imperative.

When forecasting, always start with your actual revenue. Your historical data shows trends you can build on. And remember, it’s always better to remain conservative and realistic than overly optimistic.

Use a Rolling 12-Month Forecast for Better Accuracy

Traditional annual forecasts quickly become outdated, especially if you experience seasonality or depend on temp and back-up care volume. Instead, try a rolling 12-month forecast, which updates monthly to reflect the latest sales, cancellations, client demand, and staffing patterns.

How a Rolling Forecast Works

1. Start with the next 12 months from your current date (not a calendar year).
2. Each month, replace the oldest month with a new one.
3. Update the numbers with actual revenue and expenses.
4. Adjust assumptions based on real trends (e.g., increase in temp placements, new corporate partners, slower full-time searches).

This method helps you:

• Respond to market changes quickly
• Improve budgeting accuracy
• Plan staffing needs with real-time insight
• Anticipate slow periods before they hit

If you have both temp and permanent revenue streams, a rolling forecast gives a much clearer picture than static, annual planning.

Include All Revenue Sources: Diversify Your View

A strong forecast requires visibility across all income streams. Be sure to analyze and estimate:

• Long-term nanny placements
• Short-term/temporary and on-call care
• Corporate back-up care contracts
• Newborn care specialists
• Event care, hotel care, or seasonal programs
• Administrative or membership fees

For forecasting, look at what each line produced last year, identify growth opportunities, and consider industry trends (e.g., more companies adding back-up care benefits for employees or increased demand for temp coverage during flu season).

Know Your Costs and Work Backwards from Your Desired Profit

One of the simplest, but most effective, forecasting strategies is to reverse-engineer your numbers.

Start with your profit goal:

“I want to profit $XXX amount.”

Then determine:

• How much revenue is required
• How much you can spend while still hitting your goal
• Where you must manage or limit costs

Once you determine your desired profit margin, work backward to see how much revenue must be booked and what levels of each service line must be produced to achieve it.

Let QuickBooks and Other Software Do the Heavy Lifting

Forecasting doesn’t have to be built from scratch in spreadsheets. Tools like QuickBooks can:

• Pull actual revenue automatically
• Sync payroll and operating expenses
• Generate rolling forecasts
• Model different scenarios (slow year vs. growth year)
• Track P&L by service line

QuickBooks, in particular, offers customizable forecasting reports that let you project revenue based on past results, adjust assumptions, and monitor profit margins in real time. This reduces manual entry errors and ensures your forecast updates as your business grows or shifts.

Political & Economic Factors That Affect 2026 Forecasting

The nanny industry doesn’t operate in a vacuum. As you build your projections, consider the broader forces shaping your clients’ decisions in 2026.

Key factors to watch:

1. Federal and State Labor Policy Changes

Possible changes in wage laws, tax credits, childcare funding, E-Verify rules, and employee classification can affect your labor costs and hiring trends.

2. Shifts in Workplace Flexibility

Hybrid work continues, but some employers are pushing for increased in-office attendance. This can lead to more requests for full-time nannies and more last-minute temp needs.

3. Economic Uncertainty

If inflation trends shift or consumer confidence dips, families may delay hiring long-term nannies but turn to temp and back-up care instead.

4. New Competitors in the Marketplace

Those who are laid off due to economic conditions may see this as an opportunity to start their own businesses. So, there’s the potential for startup nanny agencies to enter your market.

5. Election-Year Impact

Election cycles typically influence household spending behavior. Families may be cautious later in the year, which can affect placement timelines and corporate contract decisions.

Incorporating these variables into your rolling forecast makes your planning more resilient and realistic.

A Practical Step-by-Step Forecasting Example for Your Agency

Here’s a simplified formula you can share with your internal team:

1. Pull last year’s actual revenue.
2. Forecast revenue by service line (long-term, temp, corporate, etc.).
3. Set your profit goal: “We want to profit $XXX.”
4. Calculate required revenue based on desired margin.
5. Determine allowable costs (payroll, overhead, recruiting, etc.).
6. Input assumptions into QuickBooks or your CRM.
7. Review monthly and adjust using a rolling 12-month model.

This keeps your goals grounded in data and not guesswork.

Final Thoughts: Build a Forecast That Works for Your Agency

Forecasting for 2026 requires clarity, realism, and the flexibility to adapt as economic and political conditions evolve. By using a rolling 12-month model, tracking every revenue stream, managing your costs intentionally, and leveraging tools like QuickBooks, your agency can plan for growth with confidence.

With a conservative forecast, a strong understanding of your profit goals, and the right technology, you’ll be positioned to make smarter decisions and build a more resilient business in the year ahead.

Remember that GTM is here for you and your families as a resource for all things concerning household payroll. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with questions or to request information.